Using AI to Predict Solar Flares and Protect Our Tech-Dependent World


a burst of light comes from the sun

Aims

To develop a real-time AI tool to forecast solar flares and their effects on Earth, enhancing our resilience to space weather.

Overview

NW CyberCom is a £1.2 million project aiming to unlock the cyber security potential of the North West. Led by Lancaster University, the project sees six partner universities capture the latest cyber security innovations, working with entrepreneurs, investors, government and businesses to transform cutting-edge knowledge into new products, services and policy. The primary goal is to strengthen protection for consumers, businesses, and UK infrastructure.

Professor Robert Walsh explains:

"Our team at the University of Central Lancashire is working on an exciting project using artificial intelligence to forecast the probability of the largest solar flares. Solar flares are massive bursts of energy from the Sun that when directed towards the Earth can disrupt radio communications, damage satellites, and even cause power outages. With our increasing reliance on technology, predicting these events is more important than ever.

Arising out of project with colleagues at NASA, the team has combined over a decade's worth of solar data to train our AI system. This tool can forecast when a large solar flare is likely to happen and what impact it could have at the Earth’s orbit. By using multiple channels of data from space-based observatories, we're able to make more accurate predictions than ever before.

We’re in the process of expanding this tool to include estimations the ferocity for flare produced Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) that can further affect satellites and ground-based systems. Our goal is to create a powerful, real-time forecasting tool that can be used by the space industry to protect vital technology and infrastructure. With additional funding, we’re confident we can make this tool even more effective and scalable for wider use."

Results and Outcomes

Tab Content: For Partners and Engagement

The project has the potential to make a huge difference for industries and agencies that rely on space and ground-based technology vulnerable to solar flares. By providing advance warnings of these events, the AI tool can help mitigate the risks to satellites, communication networks, and power grids. It’s already seen promising results, with the predictions becoming more accurate and extending further into the future.

Building upon the team’s collaborations with NASA and other experts in the field, they are working to ensure the tool is as effective as possible. One of the key successes has been the integration of multi-channel data, which gives them a more complete picture of solar activity.

This project has not only enhanced their understanding of space weather but also highlighted the importance of collaboration between academic institutions and industry partners. Moving forward, they plan to validate the tool with regional and national organisations, paving the way for its commercialisation with support from their dedicated entrepreneur in residence.

Tab Content: For Academics

Learning from the process Professor Robert Walsh said: "This project has underscored the importance of integrating AI with traditional scientific methods. One of the biggest challenges was managing the vast amounts of data from multiple sources, but by developing a sophisticated AI model, we’ve been able to make significant strides in solar flare prediction. A key lesson has been the importance of collaboration across disciplines—combining expertise in solar physics, AI, and data processing has been crucial to our success.

For colleagues considering similar projects, I’d recommend focusing on scalability from the start. Our tool's ability to handle increasing data volumes has been essential, and it’s something to consider early in the development process. Additionally, building in time for rigorous testing and validation is critical—this ensures the reliability of the predictions and the overall success of the project."


Back to listing