(From Grimmett and Stirzaker) Two containers A and B are placed adjacent to each other and gas is allowed to pass through a small aperture joining them. A total of gas molecules is distributed between the containers. We assume that at each time-step one molecule, picked uniformly at random from the available, passes through this aperture.
Let be the number of molecules in container A after units of time have passed. Clearly is a Markov chain with transition matrix
i.e.
(Check that the formula makes sense for the end points!) Another interpretation for this model is as follows. Consider an urn containing balls each of which is either of colour A or colour B. A ball is drawn from the urn at random and is replaced by a ball of the other colour. Let denote the number of balls of colour A after the -th draw.
We could find the stationary distribution by solving ; this involves solving a rather unfriendly second order difference equation. Alternatively it seems sensible that when at equilibrium someone observing a video of the system would be unable to tell whether or not it was being shown backwards, and so the system should satisfy detailed balance equations; Theorem 4.4.10 confirms this.
or equivalently
Thus
In general
So
Therefore and
which is the binomial probability with parameters and .
This is the chance if the objects were allocated at random we would end up with in A and in B.
In a large system at equilibrium it is very likely that since this is the mean of the binomial distribution.
The next topic is of interest on its own and is related to the existence of the stationary distribution.