A new study tracking the fortunes of UK workers over four years shows people in insecure work – such as zero-hour contracts, low pay or temporary work – are likely to remain in insecure employment for the long-term or drop out of work altogether.

Analysis from the Work Foundation at Lancaster University examines UK workers’ career paths between 2017/2018 and 2021/2022 and finds that for many UK workers, insecure jobs – characterised by low pay, unpredictable hours, with poor protections and limited career progression – aren’t temporary stop gaps or stepping stones to more secure roles.

Using data from the Understanding Society survey to track the employment trajectories of 10,804 UK workers in secure and insecure jobs over the four-year term, researchers find four in ten insecure workers (44%) remained in ‘long-term insecure work’ – stuck in insecure employment for four years. Nearly one in ten insecure workers (9%) fell into ‘involuntary worklessness’ – defined as unemployment or economic inactivity due to long-term ill-health. Four in ten (40%) progressed to secure work and 7% took up other activities such as government training schemes or apprenticeships.

In stark contrast, secure workers displayed notably more favourable career pathways across the board. Workers in secure work in 2017/18 were twice as likely to hold a secure job by 2021/22 compared to those who started in insecure work (79.5%% vs 39.6%). Insecure workers are also 1.4 times more likely than those with secure jobs to experience involuntary worklessness – becoming unemployed or economically inactive due to ill-health within the study period (9.4% insecure workers vs 6.7% secure workers).

Ben Harrison, Director of the Work Foundation, said, “Often insecure work is seen as a stepping stone to better employment, but this evidence tells us many end up stuck in long-term insecure work. The very nature of insecure work makes it more difficult for individuals to transition to secure jobs – juggling unpredictable pay and hours can make it hard to plan, upskill or find new opportunities.

“It is welcome that the Government is committed to improving working lives through its proposed Employment Rights Bill but it is vital the Government does not step back from delivering a New Deal for Working People in full. Insecure workers on average face a yearly £3,200 pay penalty compared to secure workers, and insecure work can negatively impact people’s physical and mental health, financial wellbeing and overall quality of life. Over the long term this can have serious consequences, and underscores how important tackling this issue is.”

Researchers say that workers in sectors such as social care, retail and hospitality are at higher risk of long-term insecure work as they are more likely to be offered temporary or short-term contracts. Over a third (38%) of insecure workers in health and social care are in long-term insecure work. Three quarters (78%) of insecure workers who left the sector during the four-year period managed to obtain secure work elsewhere, while only 59% of those who remained in the health and social care sector managed to obtain more job security – representing a 19-percentage point gap.

“As the only G7 country with a smaller workforce than before the pandemic, the UK continues to face worker shortages in key sectors such as social care,” Harrison continues. “The prevalence of insecure work in many of these sectors is pushing people to leave their jobs in pursuit of more secure work elsewhere. Our evidence shows insecure workers are almost three times more likely to switch sectors compared to those in more secure jobs, which poses serious problems for sectors already facing major labour shortages and raises critical questions for Government and sector leaders as they look to restore sustained growth to the UK economy.”

The report also warns that insecure work presents particular risks for older workers. Opportunities to change occupations or sectors tend to narrow with age and the evidence suggests that older workers are more likely to get stuck in insecure work – with workers aged 45-54 nearly twice as likely to remain stuck in long-term insecure work relative to those aged 16-24 (48.8% vs 28.2%). The probability of not being able to work due to ill health also increases with age. Insecure workers aged 55-64 are almost three times as likely to fall into involuntary worklessness than those aged between 35-44 (14.4% vs 5.4%).

Among its recommendations, the Work Foundation calls for the Government to:

• pass a comprehensive Employment Rights Bill to drive up job security and quality in the UK – including banning zero-hour contracts and providing workers with guaranteed hours
• set up ‘Secure Work Commission’ to monitor and drive improvements in access to secure work in the future; and establish sector taskforces to implement change in problem sectors – such as in social care, retail and hospitality – working with Fair Pay Agreements as they are established
• deliver reforms that shift the focus of the Department for Work and Pensions from administering welfare conditionality to supporting people into sustained work and incentivising employers to provide secure jobs.

The full report, ‘No progress? Tackling long-term insecure work’ is published on the Work Foundation website: https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/work-foundation/publications/no-progress