On first glance, this week’s labour market statistics from the ONS tell a very positive story - the 16-64-year-old employment rate has hit a record 76.5 per cent, while average pay finally hit a new record in real terms following the financial crisis of 2008, with average weekly earnings standing at £511.60. Yet when we think about the future of employment and the creation of new jobs, the ‘where’, ‘what’ and ‘for who’ all matter – and on each, much uncertainty remains.

For starters, let’s consider ‘where’ employment is currently concentrated and higher wages are earned. The headline averages that will lead most news bulletins can mask the significant differences being experienced in different parts of the UK. As the Centre for Cities has highlighted, the employment rate in Oxford is at 82%, but only 66% in Bradford, while the average weekly workplace wage in London is almost double that in Southend.

Or what about the kinds of employment that make up these figures, which speak to continued changes in the structural make-up of the labour market. For example, as the Resolution Foundation has outlined, those working on zero hours contracts and in self-employment have both hit new record highs this quarter too – accounting for 3 per cent and 12 per cent of total employment respectively, with those in self-employment having risen by 1 million since the financial crisis. These developments may be positive for some people, but we are yet to fully understand the implications of such trends for individuals or firms or what an adequate policy or regulatory response could be.

And finally let’s consider ‘who’ is going to be able to access jobs in the future. When we think about the future of the economy as a whole, it has been well documented that automation alone could see up to 20% of the jobs that currently make up the UK economy disappear by 2030, with many suggesting that we are living through the kind of economic transition experienced during the industrial revolution of the 18^th and 19^th Centuries.

Even if these job losses are accompanied by the creation of new more highly skilled and better paid jobs overall, those roles are unlikely to be immediately accessible to those who currently work in the kind of ‘low skilled’ occupations most at risk of being lost. Given we’re still struggling to deal with the dislocation that accompanied the de-industrialisation of the late 20^th Century, the potential impact of these shifts for people and places should not be underestimated.

If the Government is serious about ‘levelling up’ the UK economy to be fit for the future, then alongside celebrating the record levels of employment and rising wages we have seen this week, the Chancellor must use his forthcoming Budget to set out plans to address these challenges.

That will mean going beyond welcome investments in improving the physical infrastructure of the country, to pursuing the range of economic policies that can make a place attractive for businesses to invest in and affordable for people to live in; the regulatory policies that mean people have their employment rights enforced in an ever more flexible labour market; and the education and welfare policies that can ensure people have the skills they need to access the jobs of the future and be supported should they find their job no longer exists.

And perhaps most of all it means engaging with the underlying reasons as to why parts of the country and sections of the population are particularly vulnerable to economic and technological change, and what can be done to support them to thrive in the future and ensure that opportunities for Good Work are open to all.

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