Even before the COVID-19 crisis, job insecurity was already increasing for millions of workers. Structural inequalities, stagnating wages, and significant increases in ‘flexible working’ were all contributing to the world of work becoming ever more precarious for many people. It is crucial that alongside addressing the very substantial unemployment challenges that will emerge over the coming months, we also seek to avoid a race to the bottom in working conditions in the UK, and support more people to access high quality work in the years that follow.

A defining feature of the UK economy before the COVID-19 crisis was the prevalence of low paid and insecure employment, with 12.7% of all workers estimated to be in poverty. A significant proportion of workers were essentially ‘stuck’ in low pay for an extended period of time, with wage levels across the economy stagnating since the financial crisis of 2008, and many workers facing significant barriers to achieving progression at work. Alongside this, living costs have spiralled over the last decade, with the poorest families feeling the greatest impact. Households in the lowest quintile of earners have increasingly relied on consumer credit, and lower-earners have a higher rate of problem debt.

Equally, while employment stood at a record level at the beginning of 2020, two other significant records were also set, with those working on zero hours contracts and in self-employment reaching unprecedented highs too – accounting for 3% and 12% of total employment respectively, with the number of self-employed workers having risen by 1 million since the financial crisis. While positive for some, many workers struggle with the unpredictable working patterns that these kinds of employment can lead to. 26% of zero-hour contract workers would like to increase their working hours compared with only 7% of workers whose hours are guaranteed, and about 40% reported that their working patterns often make them anxious. And many people working in this way lack access to basic support measures – for example, as access to sick pay is determined by working hours, 2 million UK workers aren’t eligible for pay when they’re unwell.

And these kinds of factors do not play out evenly across communities. The UK economy is characterised by a series of structural inequalities, with your chances of getting a job, the nature of that job, and the salary you are likely to earn all being influenced by a series of factors related to your personal characteristics – including race, gender and disability. For example, BAME workers, women and disabled people all face significant pay gaps and are significantly under-represented in senior leadership roles. The UK’s Race Disparity Audit observed that one in ten people from a Black, Pakistani, Bangladeshi or mixed ethnic background were unemployed, compared with one in twenty-five White British people. The report also found that people from Pakistani and Bangladeshi backgrounds remain more likely to be employed in low skilled, low paying occupations than other ethnic groups, and had higher rates of self-employment.

Taking all of these factors into consideration, together with the fact that the OECD is forecasting that the UK is likely to be one of the economies worst effected by the COVID-19 crisis in the world, it seems highly likely that we are moving into a period of further increased job insecurity.

Our new research programme seeks to understand the ways in which this insecurity is likely to increase, the kinds of people and places most likely to be effected, and how policies with regards welfare, employment support and worker representation will need to change in order to combat it. Last week we published an outline framework to begin this analysis. It features the kinds of factors outlined above, as well as labour market characteristics like the sector that you work in and the nature of the work that you do and situational characteristics specific to this crisis, including working while shielding or managing new caring responsibilities.

Over the months ahead, we’ll share new analysis exploring each of these elements in more detail, including the ways in which they intersect with one another, and a host of wide-ranging recommendations for policy and practice. If you are interested in finding out more about this programme, or discussing ways in which we might work together in delivering it, we would love to hear from you.

Disclaimer

The opinions expressed by our bloggers and those providing comments are personal, and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of Lancaster University. Responsibility for the accuracy of any of the information contained within blog posts belongs to the blogger.