The month in work: Looking ahead in 2024
Posted on
Good morning!
Welcome to my new newsletter. On the first Monday of each month, I will be dropping my thoughts on ‘the month in work’ directly in your mailbox.
It will be a mix of my thoughts as Director of the Work Foundation at Lancaster University on the month we’ve just had in the UK labour market, and what’s coming up.
I hope you enjoy it. If you have any ideas for content, including events, celebration weeks or research - then do drop me a line.
Hope you have a great week and catch you in March.
Best wishes,
Ben
Ben Harrison
Director, Work Foundation at Lancaster University
Looking ahead in 2024
2024 will be a pivotal year in UK politics, for the economy and in the labour market as we head towards the next General Election.
High levels of economic inactivity due to ill health remains a significant issue, with new analysis from IPPR painting a stark picture of a UK riven with the largest health inequalities on any advanced economy, contributing to persistently high levels of vacancies and worker shortages in some sectors.
While inflation may have dropped to 4%, for many the cost-of-living crisis is far from over. As the Joseph Rowntree Foundation reminded us last month, more than one in five people in the UK (22%) live in poverty, and with energy bills and food inflation set to remain high, pressures on those already struggling to make ends meet are likely to grow.
And we mustn’t forget that this is all taking place against a backdrop of stagnating real wages for the last 15 years.
A need to focus on job quality and security
Centre for Cities’ new Cities Outlook for 2024 estimates people are on average £10,200 worse off than if the economy had grown at its pre-2010 trajectory – and in cities such as Burnley, Cambridge and Milton Keynes, it’s more than £20,000.
All of which makes action to improve access to more secure, better paid and sustainable employment even more important. The Government has an opportunity to make a positive impact this year through its new Universal Support scheme, which aims to help people facing complex barriers to employment.
But there remains a big question mark over the quality and security of jobs available to people re-entering the labour market. Work Foundation analysis demonstrates the additional risks of individuals in these circumstances being pushed into insecure work, which is already associated with lower financial well-being and poor mental and physical health outcomes.
That’s why we must see a renewed focus in 2024 and the next Parliament on improving employment standards, protections and rights across the labour market – which given Labour’s commitment’s in its New Deal for Workers, is likely to be a central battleground of the next General Election.
What to look out for in February
Speaking of the next General Election, on the first day of Race Equality Week, the Labour Party has outlined plans to extend the legal right to equal pay to those from black, Asian and ethnic minority backgrounds. This comes as we expect the Party look to finalise the core planks of their Manifesto in early February. More details will likely follow throughout the month and political debate will no doubt heat up as to whether Labour’s proposals go far enough, or whether they go too far and risk causing harm to the economy.
Finally, the ONS are promising this month’s labour market statistics release on 13 February will have all the full details after a few months of experimental statistics. These are important ones as they are the last before the Chancellor’s Spring Budget on 6 March – we’ll be looking out to see if the 2.58 million people who are economically inactive due to long-term health issues has grown or shrunk.
Related Blogs
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed by our bloggers and those providing comments are personal, and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of Lancaster University. Responsibility for the accuracy of any of the information contained within blog posts belongs to the blogger.
Back to blog listing