Which is the best answer, would you say? Click on its number.
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What produces new knowledge is, ultimately, the economic organization of a society
The way to predict the future is not by analysing the past but by studying human psychology
New knowledge sometimes influences the course of historical change
You can't predict the future unless you know all there is to be known about the past - and we can never know that

What was Popper's main point in his 'refutation' of historicism'?

I think his key point is (2)

(4) is Marxist in spirit (if a bit unclear?) and something Popper would want to reject.

(3) Popper's claim is that the future cannot be predicted, not that some means to prediction are misguided.

(1) Ditto, really. For him the future is intrinsically unpredictable.