Konstantinos Sohos

Lancaster University (Bailrigg, UK) | | Degree: Philosophy, Politics, & Economics
Foreign Policy Inquiry: Assessment of Autocratic Expansion in The 'Great Reset'

Abstract

The paper provides background for recent political phenomena, primarily using data from commodity markets and the use of Kondratieff waves and the application of The Strauss-Howe Generational Theory, postulating that generational trends drive behavioral forces that determine economic and geopolitical contexts. This data is used to extrapolate larger generational trends and demonstrate how they have impacted geopolitical decissions and events overtime, which has lead to the crisis-like situation we have encountered. In addition, state rises to power will be examined to better understand the rise and decline of superpowers, namely the US and China, and extrapolates a trajectory for geopolitical occurrences to come in the next decade. Economic and demographic variables such as stock indices, wholesale prices, commodity prices will be taken into account and averaged for an aggregate overview of the contextual interventions of crisis occurrences. It is found from the research that the crisis like circumstances will persist until the early 2030s as a consequence of demographic variables. Hence, contemporary European expansionism, and the shift towards populism, and the potential for European fragmentation, and aggression, in correspondence with the demographic and economic variables mentioned. Further, focus is put towards revisionist regimes namely: China, Russia, and Turkey. I will additionally note. The objective of the research is to extrapolate the potential route of threatened state actors. The reason for such analysis would be to map out the elements needed to extrapolate the direction of the new world order, in the form of contemporary disputes, economic, administrative, political, and geopolitical contingencies. These factors will be considered postulate the ability of the United States to avert revisionist expansionism in the following decade. Hence the paper focuses on the following question: |||||How is American security inhibited by internal divisions, and to what extent can revisionist regimes exploit this?|||||


 

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Konstantinos Sohos