Kajal Dodhia

Statistics PhD Student, STOR-i Lancaster University

My PhD project is entitled ‘Statistical Modelling of Sea Surface Temperatures and Marine Heatwaves’. I am supervised by Dr Carolina Euan and Dr Emma Eastoe from Lancaster University, alongside Dr Dafni Sifnioti and Dr Wilhelm Hodder from EDF Energy Research and Development UK (EDF R&D UK).

This project is partnered with EDF R&D UK. In the UK, EDF is one of the largest energy companies and largest producer of low-carbon electricity, generating around one-fifth of the UK’s electricity. One of their priorities is safety which requires them to ensure their Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) are resilient to natural hazards. Sea water is used as a coolant meaning high sea surface temperatures (SST) could reduce the efficiency of their cooling systems. Additionally, high SST increases the risk of overheating leading to heat-related equipment failures which could reduce power generation and cause temporary shutdowns of NPP. Furthermore, thermal fluctuations from discharge alongside ongoing high SST may impact marine ecosystems.

The main aim of this project is to use statistical methodologies to improve understanding of changes in high/low (SST) in coastal regions around the UK before using these findings to develop robust statistical models to predict the future magnitude, extent, and frequency of extremes high/low SST and marine heat waves.  We aim to reduce the uncertainty in model inference; improve the accuracy of single-site risk estimates (e.g. 100-year return levels); predict spatial event sets to determine risk estimates of multi-site events.

Currently, I am exploring the spatial and temporal structure of SST in-situ measurements from a network of buoys around the UK coastline.