Professor Brian Francis

Professor of Social Statistics

Research Overview

I am a social statistician with interests in preference models, latent class methods for longitudinal data, mixture models and categorical data problems. Applications are crucial to my work. I primarily research into quantitative criminology -both methodological and substantive problems - focusing on the criminal careers of offenders and social and developmental change. I am also interested in analysing administrative and survey data and am investigating issues related to violence and serious offending, including sexual offending, homicide, trafficking, organised and cyber-crime. Recent work has focused on high frequency victimisation and gender based violence. More broadly I am working on child developmental studies in psychology.

Selected Publications

Missing observations in paired comparison data
Dittrich, R., Francis, B., Hatzinger, R., Katzenbeisser, W. 04/2012 In: Statistical Modelling. 12, 2, p. 117-143. 27 p.
Journal article

A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness
Liu, J., Francis, B., Soothill, K. 06/2011 In: Journal of Quantitative Criminology. 27, 2, p. 175-196. 22 p.
Journal article

Do facial expressions develop before birth?
Reissland, N., Francis, B., Mason, J., Lincoln, K. 31/08/2011 In: PLoS ONE. 6, 8, 7 p.
Journal article

Does serious offending lead to homicide?: exploring the interrelationships and sequencing of serious crime.
Soothill, K., Francis, B., Liu, J. 07/2008 In: British Journal of Criminology. 48, 4, p. 522-537. 16 p.
Journal article

Identifying patterns of offending behaviour: a new approach to typologies of crime.
Francis, B.J., Fligelstone, R., Soothill, K. 2004 In: European Journal of Criminology. 1, 1, p. 48-87. 40 p.
Journal article

Modeling heterogeneity in ranked responses by nonparametric maximum likelihood: How do Europeans get their scientific knowledge?
Francis, B., Dittrich, R., Hatzinger, R. 2010 In: Annals of Applied Statistics. 4, 4, p. 2181-2202. 22 p.
Journal article

Criminal Lifestyle Specialization: Female Offending in England and Wales
Francis, B., Liu, J., Soothill, K. 06/2010 In: International Criminal Justice Review. 20, 2, p. 188-204. 17 p.
Journal article

Smoothing group-based trajectory models through B-splines
Francis, B.J., Elliott, A., Weldon, M. 04/2016 In: Journal of Developmental and Life Course Criminology . 2, 1, p. 113-133. 21 p.
Journal article

A latent Markov model for detecting patterns of criminal activity.
Francis, B.J., Bartolucci, F., Pennoni, F. 01/2007 In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A Statistics in Society. 170, 1, p. 115-132. 18 p.
Journal article

Statistical modelling in R
Aitkin, M., Francis, B., Hinde, J., Darnell, R. 2009 Oxford : Oxford University Press. 568 p. ISBN: 0199219133, 9780199219131.
Book

Analysing partial ranks by using smoothed paired comparison methods: an investigation of value orientation in Europe.
Francis, B., Dittrich, R., Hatzinger, R., Penn, R.D. 1/07/2002 In: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics). 51, 3, p. 319-336. 18 p.
Journal article

A new approach for ranking crime seriousness : the use of paired comparison methodology.
Francis, B.J., Soothill, K.L., Dittrich, R. 2001 In: British Journal of Criminology. 41, 4, p. 726-737. 12 p.
Journal article

Modelling escalation in crime seriousness: a latent variable approach
Francis, B., Liu, J. 21/08/2015 In: Metron. 73, 2, p. 277-297. 21 p.
Journal article

Is violence increasing or decreasing?: a new methodology to measure repeat attacks making visible the significance of gender and domestic relations
Walby, S., Towers, J., Francis, B. 1/11/2016 In: British Journal of Criminology. 56, 6, p. 1203-1234. 32 p.
Journal article

Can the FIFA world cup football (soccer) tournament be associated with an increase in domestic abuse?
Kirby, S., Francis, B., O'Flahery, R. 08/2014 In: Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency. 51, 3, p. 259-276. 18 p.
Journal article

Working memory and its relation to key outcomes in the real world
18/12/2023 → 15/09/2026
Research

METHCRIM- methodological aspects of crime survey data
12/09/2023 → 31/12/2025
Research

Statistical Modelling in the Arts
01/02/2023 → 31/12/2024
Research

DSI: Understanding the Intersections between Care Experience and Ethnicity in Criminal Justice Involvement
01/01/2022 → 30/06/2023
Research

Violence Health and Society; VISION
01/10/2021 → 30/09/2026
Research

Breaking the Care-Crime Connection: Learning from Care-Experienced Women in Prison Disrupting the Routes between Care and Custody: Learning from females in the care and criminal justice systems.
01/02/2019 → 31/03/2022
Research

DSI: Establishment of a Data Platform and Analytics Service for the Family Justice Observatory and the provision of research and results to the FJO and general public.
01/01/2019 → 30/04/2024
Research

EU: TRAFFDAT - study on the data analysis of trafficking in human beings
11/06/2018 → 10/10/2018
Research

Study on comprehensive policy review of anti-trafficking projects funded by the European Commission
01/01/2016 → 30/09/2019
Research

Trafficking: Study on the gender dimension of trafficking in human beings
31/12/2014 → 30/09/2015
Research

FIRB: Mixture and latent variable model for causal inference and analysis of socio-economic data
01/10/2013 → 30/09/2016
Research

Is the Rate of Domestic Violence Decreasing or Increasing? A Re-Analysis of the British Crime Survey
01/04/2013 → 30/09/2014
Research

Applied Quantitative Methods Network: Phase II
01/01/2013 → 30/06/2017
Research

Overview of the worldwide best practices for rape prevention & assisting women victims of rape
01/11/2012 → 31/10/2014
Research

New models and analyses for social networks and criminological careers
01/03/2012 → 31/12/2016
Research

fEC Code - Criminal Careers Within Organised Crime
01/02/2012 → …
Research

Fetal Movement and Development
01/01/2012 → 30/09/2017
Other

Gender quotas in management boards
01/01/2012 → 31/03/2012
Research

National Centre for Research Methods Node Phase 2 Lancaster - Warwick - Stirling
01/10/2008 → 31/03/2012
Research

Statistics instruction modules for purposeful learning
01/02/2007 → 30/09/2008
Research

Reconviction predictions
01/01/2007 → 15/11/2007
Research

Homicide and the Media
01/01/1997 → …
Other

How can cancer services best meet the psychosocial needs of patients and their main carers?
01/01/1997 → 31/12/2000
Other

Understanding Temporal Changes in Offending Behaviour
01/01/1997 → 31/12/1999
Other

Violence Health and Society (Additional Funds)
01/01/1900 → …
Research

Wiley New York (External organisation)
Membership of committee

Government Statistical Service (External organisation)
Membership of committee

British Society of Criminology (External organisation)
Membership of committee

Valutazione della Qualità della Ricerca (External organisation)
Membership of committee

European Journal of Criminology (Journal)
Editorial activity

ESRC (External organisation)
Membership of committee

Journal of Quantitative Criminology (Journal)
Editorial activity

Royal Statistical Society: John Howard Medal for Social Statistics
Prize (including medals and awards)

ONS Research Excellence Awards 2024 Outcome - Impact of Analysis
Prize (including medals and awards)

  • Security Lancaster
  • Security Lancaster (Sociology)
  • Social and Economic Statistics