A Lancaster University research team have set out how local government can future proof policy design by applying a scenario planning method.

The Future Scenario Planning Briefing, by Professor Radka Newton, Dr Jekaterina Rindt, and Dr Mirian Calvo has been published by the Heseltine Institute for Public Policy, Practice and Place at the University of Liverpool.

As well as the briefing, the team also produced a toolkit. This is a step-by-step guide for local policymakers in the UK to enhance the planning and development of more sustainable and inclusive local policies in the face of complex challenges.

The researchers utilised the Future Scenario Planning method as part of the I-Connect project, which assessed the impact of the Eden Morecambe project on regional socio-economic development and sustainable transport.

The methodology allowed the university team – working alongside Lancaster City Council and other regional organisations – to engage multiple stakeholders and shape potential future narratives.

Professor Newton, Principal Investigator on the I-Connect project, said: “The future scenario planning approach provided valuable insights into how our region could evolve and highlighted the essential sustainable improvements needed in response to the Eden Morecambe innovation and other regional advancements.”

Scenario planning was initially developed in the 1970s and pioneered by Shell. The I-Connect team has expanded this method to public policy, where it has proven valuable for its emphasis on stakeholder engagement and contribution to future proofing policy decisions.

The methodology constructs multiple plausible futures, allowing policymakers to test strategies against uncertainties. It can be particularly useful in encouraging policymakers to think beyond siloed decision-making structures and instead engage in multi-disciplinary discussions.

The policy briefing advocates for the use of Future Scenario Planning in regional policymaking to navigate complex systems and build resilience.

Dr Rindt added: “Our findings highlight the potential for innovative methods to prompt discussion and debate about the formation of local policy, and to engage local communities. We propose applying this method to place-based policies, ensuring holistic consideration of residents' quality of life, environmental sustainability, and socio-economic development.”

The I-Connect research project examined the future of transport planning and innovation, and the quality-of-life implications, including health, economy, and environment that arose from Eden Morecambe.

The approach provided local policymakers with a structured yet imaginative method to assess transport challenges and break departmental silos. Beyond transport, scenario planning is a versatile tool for addressing climate change, economic sustainability, and community well-being, reinforcing the need for holistic, human-centred policymaking.

The I-Connect project’s impact phase has been funded by the AHRC Impact Accelerator Account.

The Future Scenario Planning for local policymaking briefing and Future Scenario Planning toolkit can be found online.

Discover more about how the I-Connect project fits into Lancaster University Management School's strategic Innovation in Place research pillar here.