Objectives
Lancaster is responsible for the hydrological instrumentation, monitoring and interpretation of five upland micro-basins near Llyn Brianne and for Work Package 4.2 the time-series modelling of these and other data-sets from across upland Wales. In the latter component we will work closely with all other DURESS research teams and end-user partner Welsh Water (Dŵr Cymru). The Lancaster team contribute to all DURESS objectives, but most particularly to Objectives 3 & 4 of the overall project aims: The over-arching objective of the whole DURESS programme is to i) quantify the relationship between river biodiversity and four examples of biologically mediated ecosystem services (the regulation of water quality; the regulation of decomposition; the production of fish; and the cultural value of fishing and river birds), and ii) determine how these services respond to change, notably in land use and climate. We have divided the project into 5 specific objectives that ask questions about the role of biodiversity in the delivery of river ecosystem services and the impact of land use and climate change on the delivery of these services. These are aimed at testing the overarching hypothesis that: Biodiversity is central to the sustainable delivery of river ecosystem services under changing land-use and climate patterns:Objective 1: Meta-analysis of the ecosystem services of temperate rivers
Provide a meta-analysis and data inventory of the ecosystems services delivered by temperate rivers, the ecosystem processes that underpin these services and when relevant the biological mediators of these services. Outputs will be made available on a dedicated website.
Objective 2: Biodiversity - ecosystem process interactions
Quantify the link between biodiversity and ecosystem processes and services. At scales from experimental to whole drainage basins, we will manipulate, measure and model variation in the occurrence and organisation of organisms within riverine food webs (microbes, invertebrates, fishes and birds) and the processes they drive to determine consequences of biodiversity change for ecosystem services (quantity, quality) in response to land-use and climate change. This will answer the question of what aspects of biodiversity are most important to ensure quantity or quality of service delivery (a few keystone species, abundant primary consumers, efficient resource partitioning?). This will also provide guidance on measures of biodiversity to prioritise for monitoring.
Objective 3: Time series modelling of ecosystem function & resilience
Identify potential thresholds in service delivery and factors of resilience. With significant changes in catchment landuse/management and climate likely, we need to know if there are thresholds of biodiversity under which a service cannot be delivered or is compromised. We will use time series analysis tools to forecast variations in assemblages and ecosystem functions under climate-land use combinations for the whole food web. Aspects of biodiversity (from gene to food web) important to service resilience will be evaluated. We also aim to identify the time lags in responses to environmental change that would form the basis for future monitoring and answer the question: what are the critical levels of biodiversity necessary to safeguard services against tipping points and maintain them at levels that satisfy societal need.
Objective 4: Land-use & climate impacts on biodiversity
Assess how changes in catchment land use/management and climate might affect river biodiversity. This will be achieved in 2 steps. Firstly catchment land use/management and climate scenarios with be developed with the help of the project partners. Secondly, we will assess the link between distributed changes in land use, climate, river ecological variables and river biota assemblage using two different modelling techniques: classical regression analysis (GAM) and two types of time series models. This will answer the question how will predicted changes in river character alter current biodiversity? It will also provide indication on best measures of river condition to inform on biodiversity-dependent services.
Objective 5: Valuation of ecosystem services
Evaluate the economic and health benefits (costs) associated with changes to provisioning, regulating, and cultural services. The valuation exercise will capture the impact of future scenarios on service delivery, and the specific contribution that river biodiversity makes to ecosystem service delivery. It will investigate both economic and health benefits (costs). It will also explore how different ecosystem service values vary across space. Finally, we will suggest operational tools or measures to implement the ecosystem service approach for rivers.