Storms worse than Storm Desmond could happen in the next decade, the floods boss of the Environment Agency told an audience at Lancaster University
“It is no longer possible to say these extreme storms are unprecedented. What happened last winter was extreme, but it was within the envelope of what we should expect,” said John Curtin, Executive Director of Flood and Coastal Risk Management at the Environment Agency.
Talking at a public lecture at the Lancaster Environment Centre, John said that modelling by the Met Office suggests that the next decade could bring storms with up to 20% more rain than fell during Storm Desmond, which caused devastating flooding in the Lancaster area last December.
“The biggest challenge we have is the scale of the risk,” said John, who first became interested in hydrology - the study of the movement, distribution and quality of water - when he studied Environmental Sciences at Lancaster University in the late 1980s.
“One in six properties in England – around 5 million people – are at risk of flooding. But only eight percent of these people really know that they are at risk. If you don’t know, you are not prepared,” said John, as the Environment Agency launched a two week flood awareness campaign to encourage people to find out if they are at risk.
It is also investing £2.5 billion pounds to better protect 300,000 homes by 2021 - not just on flood defences but on soft engineering and catchment management schemes.
John, has been at the Environment Agency since it formed in 1996, a career path inspired at Lancaster University.
“I actually came to Lancaster as a chemistry undergraduate. At 18 I wasn’t sure of what I wanted to do or wanted to be. The beauty of Lancaster University’s degrees is that you get to choose three modules in the first year which can be outside your subject, and I chose to do an environmental science module.
“There was a hydrology element to the module. I was excited by the energy and excitement of the department. I fell in love with the subject and was able to change to an environmental sciences degree, and then to take that passion into my job. I’m still using the hydrology I learnt at Lancaster in the job I do now.”
John remembers Lancaster University as being at the forefront of the subject, in particular the ground-breaking work of Professor Keith Beven.
“Recently, taking a catchment wide approach to flood risk has become a bit of a fad, but Keith was doing it in Lancaster back in the late ‘80s. Keith also taught me about the role of uncertainty in risk, and how to understand uncertainty, which runs through everything we do at the Environment Agency.”
John is now back collaborating with academics at Lancaster University, including his former Professor.
“Keith worked with us on a project called Sciencewise, working with communities to improve the language used to describe flooding, because the technical language can get in the way of people understanding what the risk is and what they need to do.”
John has also become involved with another Lancaster University Project, this time based in the Sociology department, on how children and young people experience and recover from floods.
“The young people produced Flood Manifestos, full of practical advice about what needs to be done to help children and young people going through this traumatic experience. It was brilliant for us.”
During his visit, John learnt about some new Lancaster research, including a recent project looking at the longer term damage to agricultural land and ecosystems caused by Storm Desmond and met some of the Environment Agency staff based at the University.
“We need to continue to keep ahead of the game by thinking faster than the climate is changing We need to look at all the best science and research to get ahead of it,” John said, “but as extreme weather becomes more common, we all have to take steps to become more resilient to flooding.”
"There are simple steps that people can take to protect themselves during a flood – like not driving through floodwater, preparing a kit of essential items and storing important documents like passports in a safe place. The single most important thing that people can do to protect themselves though is to check if your home is at risk, and sign up to free flood warnings.”
Find out if you are at risk and how to protect yourself at https://www.gov.uk/check-flood-risk.