Research Interests

Research:

My main interest and background is in developing methods and tools for time series analysis and in general analysis of uncertain dynamic and non-linear systems. The general thread in the apparently wide-ranging application areas I am involved in, is also modelling of complex natural dynamic systems while not denying the underlying uncertainties; and the effect of scale (both spatial and temporal) on the modelling process and model structure. The other fundamental element in these modelling exercises is their Data-Based Mechanistic character, whereby the model structure is not assumed, but identified using objective statistical criteria. Complexity of the model that is identifiable depends strongly on the available data - we can only model the modes of behaviour of the system under investigation that are present and 'visible' in the data. This approach to modelling is what brought me to Lancaster in the first place.

Development of novel methods of non-linear systems modelling and control (with Peter Young and Arun Chotai),

Ongoing development of Captain Toolbox

Modelling of hydrological processes (various joint projects with Nick Chappell)

Analysis of trends, cycles and interdependencies in long term environmental records (a number of projects, mostly with Nick Chappell and Crispin Halsall); these trend analysis methods have been recommended in the 2007 UNEP 'Air' Report.