A new report offers solutions to the global phosphorus crisis that is threatening food and water security.

Phosphorus is an essential but often overlooked resource, which is extracted from phosphate rock for use in crop fertilisers, livestock feeds and food additives. A major new report co-authored by Lancaster University scientists warns that global mismanagement of this finite nutrient is causing twin crises, brought into sharp focus by fertiliser prices skyrocketing in recent months.

Global food security remains threatened as many farmers struggle to afford sufficient phosphorus fertiliser for their crops. Meanwhile, overuse of fertilisers and sewage pollution pump millions of tonnes of phosphorus into lakes and rivers each year, damaging biodiversity and affecting water quality.

The Our Phosphorus Future report is the most comprehensive global analysis of the challenges and possible solutions to the phosphorus crisis to date. It is written by a team of 40 international experts from 17 countries, including three Lancaster University scientists – Professors Louise Heathwaite, Phil Haygarth and Paul Withers.

The report, supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), calls on governments across the world to adopt a '50, 50, 50' goal: a 50 per cent reduction in global pollution of phosphorus and a 50 per cent increase in recycling of the nutrient by the year 2050.

Recommendations in Our Phosphorus Future include:

• integrating livestock and crop production so phosphorus in animal manure is applied to crops, reducing the demand for chemical fertilisers;
• moving towards more sustainable diets, which would reduce the amount of phosphorus needed to grow animal feed;
• reducing global food waste, meaning less demand for crops and animal products, and therefore phosphorus (a recent UNEP report estimated global food waste from households, retail establishments and the food service industry totals 931 million tonnes each year);
• improving wastewater treatment to remove phosphorus from sewage, so it can be reused and does not enter lakes and rivers.

Only four countries control around 70 per cent of the annual global production of phosphate rock from which phosphorus is extracted, leaving the market exposed to massive fluctuations in costs and supply due to political disputes, trade wars and escalating fuel prices. Since 2020, the prices of both phosphate rock and fertiliser have increased by around 400 per cent and continue to rise. This instability exacerbates the impacts of other global factors influencing fertiliser costs, such as the effect of the war in Ukraine on the cost of natural gas.

Professor Bryan Spears of UKCEH, one of the lead authors of the Our Phosphorus Future report, says: “Many countries are highly dependent on imported phosphorus fertiliser for food production, leaving them exposed to fertiliser price fluctuations. More efficient use of phosphorus in agriculture and increased recycling, for example from wastewater, can increase resilience in the food system while reducing pollution of lakes and rivers that are biodiversity hotspots and important for drinking water supply.”

The report’s authors estimate adopting the '50, 50, 50' goal would create a food system that would provide enough phosphorus to sustain over four times the current global population, save farmers nearly US $20 billion in annual phosphorus fertiliser costs and avoid a projected yearly clean-up bill of over US $300 billion to remove phosphorus from polluted water courses.

Phosphorus pollution in lakes, rivers, and coasts accelerates the growth of algal blooms which produce toxins that are harmful to animals and humans who come into contact with or consume contaminated water. The cost of responding to water-based phosphorus pollution in the UK alone is estimated at £170 million per year.

The experts hope their report will raise awareness of the need for sustainable phosphorus management informing collaborations between scientists, governments, farmers and industries.

Dr Will Brownlie, a University of Edinburgh freshwater scientist who coordinated the Our Phosphorus Future report, says: “So far, there has been a lack of intergovernmental action. By providing the scientific evidence that shows threats posed by unsustainable use of phosphorus, as well as putting forward solutions, we hope our report will catalyse change towards sustainable management of this essential nutrient.”

Isabelle Vanderbeck of the United Nations Environment Programme, a co-author of the report, adds: “UNEP recognises the complexity of the nutrient challenge and the potential for economic benefits of improving phosphorus sustainability. Governments should take decisive actions to avoid significant environmental and societal harm due to phosphorus mismanagement.”

Professor Paul Withers from the Lancaster Environment Centre and co-author of the report, said: “The timing of this important report is perfect. With sky high fertiliser prices and further phosphorus supply disruption likely due to the Ukraine war, the international scientific community have provided compelling evidence why and how this neglected nutrient needs to be used much more efficiently and sustainably in the future.”

Professor Phil Haygarth, another author from the Lancaster Environment Centre said: “This report brings together leading scholars from around world to help find new solutions to the Global phosphorus crisis. It should help point the way towards a better phosphorus future – and hopefully food security and clean water too.”

For the full Our Phosphorus Future report and videos summarising each chapter, see www.opfglobal.com