Following a hectic two weeks in the Blue Zone at COP26, Professor Camilla Toulmin reflects on what it achieved for Africa, climate vulnerable nations and the world, and looks ahead to COP27.

After two bright and sunny weeks in Scotland, the weather has reverted to November’s grey drizzle. The station platforms in Glasgow and Edinburgh are no longer crowded with people from every corner of the planet. And with my examiner’s hat on, I have to reckon COP26 gets a B.

Many people hoped this would be a break-through moment akin to Paris in 2015 and feel a great sense of disappointment. The Climate Vulnerable group of countries and the Africa Group feel their voices have been ignored. Having the US back in the process has been welcomed overall, but they’ve been able to twist arms to remove language they don’t like, such as firmer commitments on Loss & Damage. However, the announcement of China-US talks on climate was cheering, at a time when there has been mounting sabre-rattling over Taiwan.

I must admit to having enjoyed the last fortnight, despite the limitations of what it achieved. The throng of African, Asian and Latin American delegates, chattering a hundred languages as they waited for the train, and surging up the street to find the bus, is not a common sight for Scotland. It has certainly got everyone talking about what COP26 is all about and might achieve.

I spent most of COP in the official Blue Zone as part of the Africa-Europe Foundation (AEF): we made camp at the very hospitable Sustainable Energy for All (SEfoAll) Pavilion, which champions the delivery of SDG7 – universal access to energy by 2030. It offered a welcoming space with places to perch, and a bar with delicious coffee beans from Rwanda. With tens of thousands of delegates, NGOs, business lobbyists and media, you need to find a few quiet nooks and crannies to meet and talk, and to recover your forces before setting out into the fray once more.

Some highlights

The COP began well. The roll-out of pledges on a wide range of vital issues created a sense of momentum, whether on forests, methane or energy transitions. Nigeria’s bid for net zero by 2060 generated a round of applause, as one of Africa’s largest emitters, as did the pledge to stop gas flaring by 2030. But it left some people asking, why has it taken so long to stop this shameful waste of a valuable resource which could be fuelling clean cooking for households across the country?

Good news also that the Energy Transition Council (ETC) has been given another five years to work on practical solutions for developing countries to achieve SDG7 targets.. It brings together a number of middle-income nations to partner with rich countries and financial institutions wanting to work with countries like Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya and South Africa to develop credible energy transition pathways. One very tangible example of what can be achieved through such partnerships is the support South Africa will receive, in the form of $8.5b over the next 3-5 years to help transform its energy systems, so that it no longer relies on coal for over 80% of its energy needs.

But overall, the current pledges – the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) - put us at risk of between 1.8-2.4 degrees C, depending on how effectively the commitments are put into effect.

It’s always easy to be cynical about climate change COPs. Each one is part of a process, with all the strengths and weaknesses of the UN system. Amongst the strengths is the presence of delegations from almost every government. This means that some of my African NGO colleagues get to spend quality time with officials from their own government, which they’d have great difficulty achieving back home. There have thus been many other deals agreed over the last two weeks, and many new partnerships formed.

The African perspective

Everyone brings to COP their own interests, hopes and fears. With my Africa-Europe Foundation (AEF) hat on, I wanted to assess Africa and Europe’s positioning on climate, after nearly two years of pandemic disruption. First, given the COVID-19 crisis, many African countries feel short-changed by the experience of ’global solidarity’, where the rhetoric of ’no-one is safe until everyone is safe’ has not translated into delivery of the vaccines promised for COVAX. The slow and inadequate delivery of climate finance has also shown the gap between bold pledges and follow-through. The $100b by 2020 pledged first at COP15 held in Copenhagen in 2009 is unlikely to be put in place before 2023 and is in stark contrast to the $12 trillion spent by richer nations on pandemic measures.

Second, one of the energy issues AEF has been campaigning for is the roll-out of clean cooking solutions, especially in Africa, where 900 million people continue to rely on kerosine, charcoal and woodfuel. Clean cooking is now being championed by a number of countries, thanks to continued pressure from the Clean Cooking Alliance, and was highlighted by Mary Robinson, Co-Honorary president of the AEF, at the WHO Conference on climate and health held halfway through COP. A big push on investment in clean cooking now could enable the setting up of delivery units at national and city levels and would make a big difference to the health of women and children, given the smoky air, and particulate load in many kitchens.

Third, in preparing for COP27 in Egypt, arguments about whether and how Africa’s gas resources should be exploited are getting louder. Many European and North American governments, banks and institutions say they will no longer invest in any fossil fuel activities. But, as powerfully articulated by Kandeh Yumkella, Co-chair of the AEF Strategy Group on Energy, African countries need to grow their economies to address high levels of poverty, rising urbanisation, and diversify their economies away from reliance on raw commodities.

This structural transformation and growth are particularly urgent given the likely doubling of Africa’s population by 2050. Proponents of investment in Africa’s gas point to the tiny amounts of energy used per head – the average African uses less than it takes to power a single fridge in US and EU homes. Making use of gas for 25-30 years, by providing base-load power, would enable a more rapid deployment of renewable energy across the continent, it would cut reliance on heavily polluting diesel generators, and it could accelerate investment in productive capacity and jobs. Watch this space over the next few months, as EU Green Deal advocates face off against those pushing for Africa’s economic development above all else.

Lessons for COP27

What lessons does COP26 leave us with as we prepare for COP27 in Egypt? First, domestic politics really matter. Mass mobilisation and noisy demonstrations on the street really do cut through. Civil society groups in each and every country need to be lobbying hard from today to make sure governments increase ambition in the NDCs to be presented in 12 months’ time. Early and significant cuts will make it more likely we can bridge the gap and get down to 1.5 degrees.

Second, a concerted effort is needed to bring India alongside in phasing out coal. While recognising the huge differences, if South Africa could call on a consortium of development partners and financial institutions to invest in transitioning out of coal, a comparable approach might be possible for India.

Third, while adaptation finance is important, many climate-vulnerable countries have moved beyond adaptation and now need significant help to address loss and damage to their land, livelihoods, infrastructure and prospects for the future.

Fourth, the razzmatazz around the huge headline figure of $130 trillion in assets held by financial institutions associated with Mark Carney’s Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero needs a much more careful look, to unpack what it actually means for climate action.

And fifth, there is much buzz around technical solutions to cutting emissions, such as green hydrogen, smarter grids, and better batteries. I hope COP26 has given a very clear signal to those developing clever tech that there is a huge appetite for their work.

Author biography

Camilla Toulmin FRSE is an economist and Professor in Practice at the Lancaster Environment Centre. A former Director of the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), her career has focused on policy research about agriculture, land, climate and livelihoods in dryland regions of Africa.

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