Pei Rou Ong
In response to the outbreak of covid-19, many countries have enforced lockdown policy to prevent further spread of the virus. The unpredictable nature of pandemic has compelled people to start hoarding groceries out of fear of food shortage. The aim of this study is to detect customer’s purchasing pattern especially on the dried processed grocery products after outbreak of covid-19 to observe the occurrence of different products in customer’s shopping basket. About 590k records of transactional data dated from January to October 2020 was collected from 810 freshmart, a local supermarket chain based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Overall grocery sales have surged after announcement of lockdown as the people cannot risk going out that often, hence they chose to hoard imperishable necessities. People would randomly buy products of different brands due to stress purchasing as weird purchasing pattern were identified from the transactional data. In addition, the results obtain from association model are proved to be satisfactory based on the rules of confidence and lift which showed significant. Therefore, the retailers are able to take advantage of this recommended rules on their promotions to increase their sales.
Pei Rou Ong
By just focusing on the first quarter of year 2020, it is observed that mid-March to April has a comparatively higher sales as compared to other months. During its peak in April, the sales levels were 1.58 times higher than Jan and Feb which MCO has not yet take place. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the country, government implemented Movement Control Order (MCO) that takes place on 18 March 2020. We believed that the reason for such high sales is because people are stocking up to prepare for MCO.
The chart above shows that supermarkets receive the highest number of orders at around 2:00pm. Possibly most customers made purchases during lunch hour between 12:00pm — 2:00pm.
We extracted data from 1 Jan 2020 until 23 Oct 2020, where we are expected to see significant changes in grocery sales due to outbreak of Coronavirus. Various graphs and association analysis
will be generated to investigate the relationship between products and how can the retailers make use of this information to come up with business strategies.
810 Freshmart aims to eliminate customer’s pain point by offering door-to-door delivery that covers city centre area in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia for affordable fresh products like fruits and vegetables. Since fourth quarter of 2020, certain areas are under heavy restriction as Malaysia is currently facing third wave of virus outbreak. Consumer living in these areas may respond better to pantry loading thus leading to a surge of demand for convenience food.
Therefore, 810 freshmart included wider range of grocery products on their website for delivery. The range of products include but not limited to biscuits, junk food, canned food, etc.
Background
Descriptive Analysis
This pie chart expressed the most frequently purchased product type in the entire dried food’s sales from Jan 2020 to Oct 2020. It is clear that the majority of customers bought more biscuits and savory snacks, with just approximately 10% difference between the two. Confectionery products like chocolate or sweets accounts for 16.43% of the customer’s frequently bought items. The quantity sold of healthy snacks only contributed 9.87%, which is a relatively small portion to the entire sales. This chart implied that biscuit and savory snacks more important in Malaysian’s basket.
Association Analysis
Purchasing patterns for different types of dried food groceries
For Savory Snacks, Healthy Snacks, Confectionary Products: we investigated association between the same brand
Reason being - consumers have confidence in the brand
For Confectionary Products: heavy association was spotted for Nestle's Koko Crunch & Milo Cereal -> we believe they can be substitutes of each others as they both have similar texture and taste
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the country, government implemented Movement Control Order (MCO) that takes place on 18 March 2020. This involves closure of entertainment activity, prohibition of mass gathering and most importantly, the people are only allowed to travel within 10km radius. Even though government has ensured that there are sufficient food supplies, people still hoard up products with the fear of running out of daily necessities
Eating pattern was positively correlate with grocery habits and that’s why proliferation of savory snacks is generally bad for our health as they usually consist of high sodium and fat content
which can potentially contribute to the risk factor of obesity.
The use of cheap and highly processed ingredients is the main reason why
most unhealthy food is highly affordable. The scatter plot above shows that average price for healthy food is generally higher than unhealthy food.
Implications of grocery purchasing and eating habit
Purchasing patterns for different types of dried food groceries
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