5 Week 5 Bayesian statistics: Decisions

5.2 Bayes Rule and Risk

Bayesian rule and risk

The expected loss of a decision d𝒟 with respect to the state of nature θΘ is

ρ(π,d) = πL(d,θ)
= θL(d,θ)π(θ)𝑑θ

The expected loss principle

Bayes risk

ρ(π) is the minimum expected loss (with respect to π(θ))

ρ(π)=infd𝒟ρ(π,d) (5.2)
Bayes rule

is the decision, d, that minimises Equation 5.2.