Home page for accesible maths 15 Deviance and the LRT

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Notes (summary)

  • 1

    We have now seen two different ways to calculate approximate confidence intervals (CI) for an unknown parameter. Previously, we calculated CI based on the asymptotic distribution of the MLE (CI-MLE). Here, we showed how to calculate the CI based on the asymptotic distribution of the deviance (CI-D).

  • 2

    We discussed various differences and pros and cons of the two:

    1. 1

      CI-MLE is always symmetric about the MLE. CI-D is not.

    2. 2

      CI-MLE can include values with zero likelihood (e.g. infeasible values such as negative probabilities, as seen here). CI-D will only include feasible values.

    3. 3

      CI-D is typically harder to calculate than CI-MLE.

    4. 4

      For reasons we will not go into here, CI-D is typically more accurate than CI-MLE.

    5. 5

      CI-D is invariant to re-parametrization; CI-MLE is not. (This is a good thing for CI-D, that we will learn more about in subsequent lectures).

  • 3

    Overall, CI-D is usually preferred to CI-MLE (since the only disadvantage is that it is harder to compute).

  • 4

    DEVIANCES ARE ALWAYS NON-NEGATIVE!