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2.8.1 Capturing the population parameter

A plausible range of values for the population parameter is called a confidence interval.

Using only a point estimate is like fishing in a murky lake with a spear, and using a confidence interval is like fishing with a net. We can throw a spear where we saw a fish, but we will probably miss. On the other hand, if we toss a net in that area, we have a good chance of catching the fish.

If we report a point estimate, we probably will not hit the exact population parameter. On the other hand, if we report a range of plausible values – a confidence interval – we have a good shot at capturing the parameter.

Example 2.8.1

If we want to be very certain we capture the population parameter, should we use a wider interval or a smaller interval?

Answer. If we want to be more certain we will capture the fish, we might use a wider net. Likewise, we use a wider confidence interval if we want to be more certain that we capture the parameter.